Treasury yield simulations project 3‑month bills at 1%–2% in 10 years; curves show widening risk premiums, inversion odds and ...

Abstract: Probability estimation plays a pivotal role across diverse domains, particularly in scenarios where the objective is to select non-repetitive units one at a time, with the option of ...

The joint probability of two or more variables being “extreme” is relevant in Flood and Coastal Risk Management (FCRM) in various contexts, including: Assessing the likelihood of extreme peak flow ...

Abstract: There are many uncertain information and incompleteness factors on warhead fragments dispersion and the self-destructive factors of target damage. It is very difficult to scientifically give ...

Discover how emotional biases impact stock market crash estimates. See why expert analysis suggests lower risk and learn how to refine your own forecasts.

Prediction markets are ushering in a new era where collective judgement and "crowd wisdom" are no longer theoretical concepts ...