Add Yahoo as a preferred source to see more of our stories on Google. Forecasters estimate the probabilities of the events occurring—a more informative guess than a simple “yes” or “no”—weeks to ...

Mathematicians may have a better way to measure agreement across different datasets. Agreement affects reproducibility, meta-analysis, and prediction to fill in missing data points. We need a more ...

For those who predict the distant future, there are two traps to avoid. One is to assume human nature will change dramatically and that people will abandon things embedded in their souls, such as ...

A 1989 demo imagined what houses of the future might look like. Some predictions were closer than you’d think.

Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...