A full-blown trade war between the U.S. and Canada could lead to a recession in both countries, economist says.

Trump said in a post to Truth Social on Monday that one of his first executive orders would be to hit Mexico and Canada with a blanket 25% tariff. Mexico and Canada are the second and third top suppliers of goods to the U.S., according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. The U.S. imports the most goods from China.

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday she and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump had agreed to maintain a good relationship in a friendly phone call that appeared to ease tensions between the top trading partners amid tariff threats.